Turkmen gas to replace Russian gas in Europe

Most readers of this post will probably laugh after reading my post. But I would not be so confident if I were you. First of all because I have not been wrong about anything for the last 8 years, including the latest events in Ukraine, and secondly, because it is already obvious what is happening and what will happen to the market for Russian gas in Europe, which by the way accounts for 83% of all Russian gas production. So, I'm telling you, Turkmenistan will replace Russian gas in Europe, and Turkmenistan will cause the liquidation of Gazprom as a huge gas monopoly. Gazprom will be liquidated, while its beautiful skyscraper in Lakhta, a suburb of St. Petersburg, visible from my apartment window, will be converted into a clothing market. How else could it be? Is that okay? And I'm not kidding. This is what's going to happen. This week we're obviously witnessing a de facto divorce between Gazprom and the European consumers. It's true that the West cannot suddenly give up Russian gas, not that it can't, it would be painful for the Europeans. On the other hand, losing the European gas market would be a disaster for Russia. Putin can juggle all he wants with demands to pay in rubles and threats to close the valve, but the reality is that Russia sells and transports gas to Europe much more important than Europe needs this gas. Putin can juggle all he wants with demands for payment in rubles and threats to close the valve, but the reality is that Russia's gas sales and transportation to Europe are far more important than Europe's gas supply. On the other hand, no one remembers Gazprom's favorite slogan of recent years - that Gazprom is the most reliable supplier in the world. It turns out that it is not. Gazprom is first and foremost Russia's political weapon, not a business. That is why it is worth so little in shares compared to the same companies in the world. The events around Ukraine and the gas war that has broken out with threats to turn the valve on one side and not to pay in rubles on the other will have only one consequence. Europe in 3-5 years will completely stop buying Russian pipeline gas. Or it will reduce its consumption to a critical minimum for Russia. This will lead to a fall in the price of Russian gas exports, as Russian urals are already cheaper than light and brandt. Period. What Russia will do then is unknown, but it will lose a huge share of its export revenues. But the most interesting thing is what will be used to replace Russian gas? I think it will be Turkmen gas. Generally speaking, I don't care how much Turkmen gas is produced now and how this gas will get to Europe. Consider that I had a revelation. This is why Turkey began to quickly solve the Karabakh problem by pacifying the Karabakh conflict. This is why the Turkmen president was suddenly unmotivated to change. Some of the European consumers will replace Russian gas with LNG. Some will switch to Turkmen gas. Gazprom will be liquidated, because there will be no need in such a monster. Instead of it several small companies will be created. The high-rise building in Lakhta will be rebuilt as a clothes market, it will be more suitable for future needs.