Ceiling for Russian oil.

As you may recall, during the discussion of the Russian oil price ceiling, estimates among analysts varied. The Russian officials promised that the price of oil would rise to $300 a barrel, but the Russian analysts, the same Demura and Levchenko were so fucked up that they began to argue that Moscow would set the price of oil in the world and Moscow and Riyadh would regulate the market and redistribute markets amongst themselves. Yesterday they came close to introducing a price ceiling on Russian oil and what happens on the market? The answer is no. The discussion of prices seemed to come to nothing yesterday, that is, there is no clear decision. Europe wants to introduce the ceiling at $60 - $65, which corresponds to the prices at which urals are sold now. On the chart below, the difference between urals and the brand that goes now at $85 is $24. So the price of urals today is $61. The Baltics and Poland think the $60-70 ceiling is too fat for Russia and suggest a $30 ceiling. The discussion stopped there yesterday, but in the morning news came in that Biden had discussed with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen the introduction of a ceiling on Russian oil and the ceiling is ALREADY in effect. He did not name the price level, but by all appearances it is the same $60-65. Did the market notice these moves? Absolutely not. Oil is under seasonal pressure until the end of the year, sometimes until December, then there follows a rebound up to spring, in peaceful years on this ruble is strong and there was even a strategy, sell the dollar for rubles in December and buy back in March April - and this time it is likely to just horizontal movement, but oil prices will not go to any $ 300 and no center in Moscow for the distribution of oil in the world. Just like it doesn't exist with gas. The technical picture in oil remains bearish, we have a stable price below the 200-day average and there are no signs yet that oil is going to rise. Russia, according to Russian officials, is going to stop selling oil to the countries that imposed the ceiling, thus repeating the self-embargo imposed on itself. The same one that Russia imposed on itself in the case of gas. Remember the sale of gas for rubles? Who buys gas for rubles now? No one. Putin simply dumped his sales market in Europe, giving it to anyone but himself. What happened after that? When the gas flows were blown up and gas supplies to Europe began to plummet? The hell did not happen. The price of gas fell instead of rising. Putin lost his European market forever. Moscow didn't became the center for setting gas prices, and Plesky the sitter abruptly forgot his forecast of a $5,000 gas price, and Levchenko and Dr. Ebanucci were, to put it mildly, mistaken. Well something similar will happen now. Demura's Lefties will shit their pants again, the price of oil will continue to fall, and the world will not notice the loss of the oil fighter. But there will be less and less currency coming into the country. USD_TODTOM swaps have more than doubled in a month, and they are approaching what they were before the invasion of Ukraine. Market participants expect a squeeze in the supply of currency, and the feverish actions of the Central Bank, which recently allowed even cash settlements on foreign contracts, indicate just that.