Elections in Belarus - August 9. What to expect and why?

Only two weeks are left before a significant event in the history of Belarus - the next re-election of the annoying Alexander Lukashenko. Probably everyone can already see that he does not have any popularity among the people, and he will never win fair elections. He has already gotten everyone out, no joke, he has been sitting for 26 years, and having spit on the coronavirus epidemic, he angered all Belarusians in general. They don't care what exactly Lukashenka is doing. He's just bored. By the way, the same will happen to Putin. In Belarus, things just went much further. I also want to draw your attention to how my script is executed. And to explain again why the protest movement in Ukraine and now in Belarus is more active than in Russia. The less the territory was part of the USSR and under the rule of the communists, the easier it is to get rid of this past. Conversely, the more the country was under the yoke of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, the stronger those changes in the behavior and minds of the population under the influence of the inhuman communist ideology, the more difficult it is to make changes. And the later these changes take place. That is why the second wave of changes, and the first was in the late 80s - early 90s, is developing from west to east, and not vice versa. As in the 80s, first there were changes in the countries of Eastern Europe - then in the Baltic states and only then in the former Soviet republics, which were so until 1939. And again, if some former social republic, especially in the west of the USSR, had in its composition the territories that were in the free world before the war, it is easier for it to follow the path of changes. That is why the wave of changes that is now coming from the West, after the Baltic States and Poland, manifested itself in Ukraine, and now has reached Belarus. In this sense, Lukashenka is not tired of it, it's just that the time has come for changes. Time for a change of mood among the people of Belarus. Rossiyskaya Gazeta Unfortunately, this is where the good news ends. Lukashenka will actually lose the election. I think that the wife of Tikhanovsky, who is now in jail, will win. It would seem that Lukashenka didn’t allow any other real candidates, but as always, the authorities at the end of his rule, and it ends with Lukashenka in one way or another, including for physiological reasons, begin to make mistakes. As in Russia, the opposition of Belarus could hardly unite on its own. But as they say there was no happiness, so misfortune helped. Lukashenka himself did everything to make this happen. He banned everyone, and without realizing it created a single opposition candidate - Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Yestestvenno, ona nikakoy ni politik, lish' voley Lukashenko stavshaya obshchim kandidatom protiv nego. No v tom to yeye i sila. YA uveren na nastoyashchikh vyborakh ona by pobedila, khotya vse prekrasno ponimayut, yey ne nuzhna vlast', ona uzhe sama zayavila, chto v sluchaye pobedy ona provedet novyye nastoyashchiye vybory cherez 6 mesyatsev. Na kotorykh budut dopushcheny vse kandidaty. Ideal'noye resheniye. Snova k sozhaleniyu, etomu ne byvat'. Lukashenko ob"yavit o svoyey pobede, a vyshedshiye belorusy na ulitsy budut zhestko razognany. On ne ostanovitsya pered silovym razgonom, kstati on uzhe podtverdil chto ne koleblyas' vyvedet armiyu i budet strelyat'. V istorii, v bol'shinstve sluchayev takiye rezhimy, kak putinskiy ili rezhim Lukashenko, ne ukhodyat v rezul'tate vyborov. nu prosto potomu, chto daleye byvshiy prezident popadet pod sud za vse te pregresheniya, kotoryye on tochno sovershil. Takzhe, k bol'shomu sozhaleniyu dlya Belarusi, ona ne nakhoditsya na krayu sveta, v yuzhnoy amerike, a Lukashenko ne Pinochet. Kotoryy v skhozhikh usloviyakh otdal vlast'. Belarus', kak ya i preduprezhdal raneye, zazhata seychas mezhdu dvumya protivoborstvuyushchimi silami, Zapadom v vide rasshiryayushchegosya na vostok NATO i putinskoy Rossiyey. I tut ostat'sya neytral'noy ne poluchitsya. Ona budet pogloshchena odnoy iz etikh sil, i dovol'no bystro. Yesli vdrug maydan v Minske primet ukrainskiy masshtab, Lukashenko ispol'zuyet silu, ne ostanavlivayas' pered strel'boy. Yesli vdrug, kak v Ukraine, somnevayus', no vdrug ya oshibayus' v otsenke nastroyeniy belorusov pogibat' za svoi natsional'nyye vzglyady, vdrug Lukashenko poterpit porazheniye, i yemu pridetsya bezhat', kak Yanukovichu, ya ne somnevayus', chto Rossiya ispol'zuyet svoye snachala vliyaniye, a yesli ne pomozhet, to i voyennuyu silu, chtoby ne otpustit' Belarus' na zapad. Potomu chto lyuboy pobedivshiy na svobodnykh vyborakh kandidat krome Lukashenko sovershenno tochno zapustit protsess dreyfa Belarusi v storonu Zapada. Prosto potomu, chto etot put' boleye privlekatel'nyy i podkhodyashchiy dlya territorial'nogo raspolozheniya respubliki. Show more 1955/5000 Naturally, she is not a politician, only by the will of Lukashenka she became a common candidate against him. But that is her strength. I am sure she would have won the real elections, although everyone understands perfectly well that she does not need power, she herself has already stated that if she wins, she will hold new real elections in 6 months. At which all candidates will be admitted. The perfect solution. Again, unfortunately, this will not happen. Lukashenka will declare his victory, and the Belarusians who took to the streets will be brutally dispersed. He will not stop before the forceful dispersal, by the way, he has already confirmed that he will not hesitate to withdraw the army and will shoot. Rossiyskaya Gazeta In history, in most cases, regimes such as Putin's or Lukashenka’s regime do not leave as a result of elections. well, simply because then the former president will be put on trial for all the sins that he definitely committed. Also, unfortunately for Belarus, she is not at the end of the world, in South America, and Lukashenka is not Pinochet. Who gave power in similar conditions. Belarus, as I warned earlier, is now sandwiched between two opposing forces, the West in the form of NATO expanding eastward and Putin's Russia. And here it will not work to remain neutral. She will be absorbed by one of these forces, and rather quickly. If suddenly the Maidan in Minsk takes on a Ukrainian scale, Lukashenka will use force, without stopping before shooting. If suddenly, like in Ukraine, I doubt, but suddenly I am mistaken in assessing the mood of Belarusians to die for their national views, suddenly Lukashenka will be defeated and he will have to flee like Yanukovych, I have no doubt that Russia will first use its influence, and if not will help, then the military force, so as not to let Belarus go to the west. Because any candidate who wins in free elections except Lukashenka will definitely start the process of Belarus drift towards the West. Simply because this path is more attractive and suitable for the territorial location of the republic. Also, unfortunately, I want to say a paradoxical thing. For the world on the western frontier of Russia, it would be better if Lukashenka remained in power. And so that the status quo does not change. He needs to continue to maneuver, not succumbing to Putin's efforts and not agreeing to join Russia, especially in the military sense. Otherwise, we will get a situation similar to the one that was on the western border of Russia in 1812, 1913 and 1941. Continuous front of confrontation from the Baltic to the Black Sea. All the previous times it ended in war. All three times. Moreover, on the eve of its beginning, the territories between the opposing sides were quickly absorbed by one of the sides. Just what is happening now.