April 21 Putin's address to the Federal Assembly

On April 21, the day after tomorrow, on Wednesday, Putin is going to present his message to the Federal Assembly. It seems that this time it will not be trivial and not passable, as it was in previous years. But first the facts. So, President Putin was late with his message this year. It is usually presented in February January. For example, last year it was January 15th. This year we waited 4 months. Federation Council Speaker Matvienko has already hinted that this message will set a new era in the country's development, introduce a new coordinate system. And the Federation Council needs to be ready to meet urgently for a meeting after the message in order to quickly wave the theses that Putin will voice. Second. On April 21, the opposition, which is about to be declared an extremist community and will begin general repressions with plantings, suddenly announced its Sabbath. The reason is most likely that opposition leader Navalny is dying in prison, and also in order to spoil the guarantor of the event itself - a speech with a message. Third. Lukashenka is coming to meet with Putin on April 22, and he has already announced that he will make some major statement, steps that will not allow his Belarusian opposition to turn Belarus off the path that Lukashenka has outlined. Where Lukashenka's path leads for Belarus is probably so clear. Well, as a cherry on top - the weekend exposure of a conspiracy of political scientists in Belarus with the aim of physically eliminating Lukashenka and eliminating his children. These are the basic facts. Well, let's figure out what will happen on the 21st - 22nd? Nightingale was still waiting for Putin in his message to announce the transit of power in the country. Hmm, I don’t know, it’s not like that yet. It is much more likely that Putin will announce a change in policy regarding the DPR - LPR. Perhaps he will announce the recognition of the independence of these enclaves of separatists in Ukraine, as a maximum of their annexation and their inclusion in Russia. See How will the war start in eastern Ukraine? The second important event that can happen is that Lukashenko will finally surrender the independence of an incomprehensible entity called Belarus, and it will finally become the Minsk region of the Russian Federation. I have long said that Belarus is a failed state, the Belarusians were unable to create their own national state, with their own language and culture, which means it should disappear. The overwhelming majority of Belarusians will not protest against this, and Lukashenka's departure after the country's inclusion in Russia will even be accepted positively by the majority of Belarusians. Do not just think that this is generally a positive phenomenon for Russia. I have already noted earlier that we are present at the building of a line of contact between two antagonists - blocs in Europe. The West and Western civilization, and the East, represented by Putin's pseudo despotism. So it was always before a big conflict, the parties quickly absorb the neutral countries lying between them, either through military capture, or voluntary (supposedly) joining the opposing blocs. Remember 1810 - 1812, then 1939 - 1941, and it will become clear to you what is happening right now. Immediately after the Russian troops are fully deployed on the territory of Belarus, a big conflict can be expected. At least all the conditions for this will be met. Third, the opposition rally. I think this is the last attempt by the FBK to influence Putin's policies by legal means. And also an attempt to save Navalny in prison. Obviously, after the action on April 21, especially if it turns out to be small in number, the FBK will be banned, and a lot of its employees and simply sympathizers will go to the bunk. FBK will be recognized as an extremist organization, which means prison terms for its members. considering that the number of sponsors of the movement throughout the country is quite large, they will all be under threat of persecution. The failure of the action on April 21 will most likely mean physical death for Navalny himself, who is starving in the colony. After that, FBK will go underground, and their methods will be radicalized. Those statements and words that today still seem normal and permissible to you, tomorrow will become sedition. This is a normal course of historical events and Russia has already gone through this. So, we are facing a clearly volatile week, and I see no good news here either for the Russian market or for the ruble. The only question is what President Putin will voice. if it is something big, then the West will again introduce some kind of sanctions. In June, they will most likely touch on the secondary debt of Russia, and this is serious. It is also worth remembering that no matter what Putin comes up with, no matter how ingenious his decision in his message may seem to you, it will come out sideways with the passage of time. If not immediately, then after a while. Why? Because the country is ending the period of its development that began in 1905. This period will end with a big badamum, and some echoes in the form of the clanging of metal on railway platforms traveling to the west of Russia are already clearly audible.