How will the war start in eastern Ukraine?

Only the lazy is not writing in the media now about the possible start of the conflict in Ukraine with the participation of Putin's army. The transfer of troops takes place practically for show. In the media resources of Russia, especially on the propaganda TV channels, the population is being pumped with hatred. But is it all that serious? Let's figure it out. The first and foremost is the technical picture in pairs with the ruble. I pointed out this for a long time, we have a barrier triangle there since 2014, with a lower border sloping upward, and an upper horizontal one. There is a gradual squeezing of the price from below. Such triangles are formed due to the work of big money in the market. They cannot buy or form the entire position at once, as this will cause a strong move. In addition, there is simply no such volume on the market. Therefore, they give the price a sharp bounce down and then start buying. Buying all the way up to a certain point. Where buying ends, price reverses and falls again. Throughout the fall, the crowd sells - a large buyer is sitting in ambush or, with pinpoint sales, gives impulses downward to the price. Then, upon reaching a certain level, purchases begin again and the price rises again to the level above. A distinctive feature of the formation of such triangles is the lower inclined border, the upper horizontal. Then, when the position is formed, an upward breakout and a sharp rise occurs. Izvestia english Like any other triangle, it must have 5 waves in its composition. So now these waves are either ready or very close to full formation. That is why the aggravation in Donbass is happening now, and not in 2018 or 2020. The market predicts events, not the other way around. Let's go further. Obviously, the Minsk process is dead, and Putin has failed to achieve his goals of shoving Donbass back into Ukraine like a Trojan horse. Zelenskiy did not turn out to be a capitulator, and his recent attack on pro-Putin forces in Ukraine suggests that there are no more points of contact between the positions of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Further. There is an obvious transfer of troops and equipment to the line of contact. Some idiots say that this transfer comes only from the side of Ukraine, the army of the DPR and LPR is simply responding. I laugh in your face. For some reason, as a result of the two Chechen wars, Chechnya had no multiple launch rocket systems, no tank battalions, no beeches. The armies brought out into the field and concentrated to strike cannot sit in the steppe forever. Maximum month. This means that either the trains will go back, or the cargo 200 will go back. There is no other way. The equipment of field camps does not help. The equipment will not stay in place for a long time. She needs to be dragged to parks and serviced. Therefore, either no later than the beginning of mid-May, or they will disperse again. Climate. Many laughed when I wrote that they don't start wars in winter, but what do you say now? The steppes of eastern Ukraine are black soil, which in spring is practically inaccessible for technology. On the bare steppe, tanks and infantry clusters are clearly visible from the air. The earth needs to dry up and turn green. Today in Donetsk at night plus 2 in the afternoon plus 15. Not bad, but you need at least another month. the beginning of May is the right time. In winter, everyone sat at home in Buryatia. When it got warmer, let's go. The fact that Putin is not ready yet, says the casus belli - the new Gleiwitz. While insane Simonyan is shouting about "Forward to Kiev!" On all TV channels in the country, in reality the war cannot start just like that. You need a reason. An attack on some object in the Rostov region by a distraught binder, an unmotivated shelling of a hospital in some Rostov Gukovo - Novo - Shakhtinsk. Better with sarin. This will be a casus belli, all belli an incident. Judging by the fact that the death of another “boy crucified in Slavyansk” was released on the brakes, who was also blown up by ammunition stored for the Ukrainian junta by his parents, as well as the fact that Russia’s reaction to this is somehow weak, suggests that the hour X has not yet arrived. A couple of weeks - there is still a month. And yes, there is no binder attack - it is organized. This is not a problem at all. Again, I think that the Ukrainian side can also help, everyone's nerves are at their limit. English Pravda Further. We have news not only that Russia is sending echelons with equipment from Siberia to Donbass, but also information that NATO and US aircraft with some kind of cargo are flowing to Kiev and Western Ukraine. Probably with snickers chocolates. American reconnaissance planes constantly hang in the air along the southern border of Ukraine and Russia on the Black Sea. The situation is being monitored and it is clearly tense. If Putin has concentrated a strike force, but will not use it, but will begin to withdraw troops, this will definitely be regarded as a weakness. Akela is old, Akela missed. This is the worst thing that can happen in such a power structure as in Russia now. This also cannot be allowed, and it was better not to start screaming about a fight if you were not ready to strike. Thus, we can say that most likely the conflict will be no later than the beginning of summer, no earlier than the end of April. It will start with the "crime of the Ukrainian military", a counter-crushing blow of Donbass miners along the entire front, with the landing of Luhansk airmobile militia units in the deep rear of the Binder, and possibly with a landing operation from the sea to Mariupol by Donetsk market traders of Turkish consumer goods. And Luhansk scrap metal buyers will strike with Iskanders retribution on Bankova Street in Kiev. Everything as the head of Rossotrudnichestvo recently wanted, remember this? There may be options further, but I am very confident that under no circumstances will Putin be allowed to take Kiev, and attempts to cross the Dnieper will be stopped by NATO aviation, which will appear in Ukraine after the request of President Zelensky. Well, how did Putin himself end up in Syria? What don't you really say? Is it realistic for you to fight the Ukrainians on the entire 800-kilometer front? Now the arguments against the war. I don't know if you understand or not, but this war is madness. The beginning of hostilities with a 40 million country is just fucking. For comparison - the population of Finland in 1939 was 10 times less! Only 3.7 million! The war lasted almost half a year and the irreparable losses of the Red Army were only officially 126,000 people. Think about it, you cottony idiots! Losses can be over a million, and this is almost 1% of the entire population of Russia now. Does the Kremlin understand this? I do not know. Hope so. But maybe not. Let's go further. In 2021, the transfer of troops is going on openly and they talk about it openly. As if for show. In 2014, real terms were given for such videos with trains. Now they are everywhere, in any media. Why is that? Is it window dressing? Are they just scared? Maybe, but it should be remembered that the gun hanging on the wall always shoots in the second act. And the second and again - it is impossible to make it clear to the lohtorat that Akela missed. So I would think about peace, but prepare for war. Kommersant English Well, in conclusion. No one knows the future for sure. Maybe in a month everyone will disperse, or maybe they will bomb Rostov and Kiev. We don't know for sure now. But there is a set of signs to watch out for. And take them into account in your forecasts. I have listed them. Gleiwitz, weather. Well, something like this.