Why authoritarian regimes always repeat the same pattern

The Sun published an amusing map of the World War 3 scenario over the weekend. Its appearance is associated with the ever-increasing rhetoric around China and Taiwan. Let me remind you that several significant events have taken place in the past few weeks. First, a new defensive pact was signed between the United States, Britain and Australia, AUKUS (according to the first letters of the names of the participating countries). This is the largest military cooperation agreement between them since the Second World War. This pact is not directly directed against China, but the reason for its creation is obvious to everyone. The consequence of the creation of this pact was the dissolution by Australia of a contract for the supply of 12 submarines worth $ 36.5 billion with the French concern Naval Group, since now Australia is going to build them itself. The first step in the AUKUS framework will be to provide Australia with nuclear submarine construction technologies, although it will still not have nuclear weapons. What should be regarded as the opposite, nuclear weapons will be there. Thus, Australia will become the seventh state in the world armed with nuclear submarines. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the United States has 68, Russia has 29, China has 12, Britain has 11, France has eight, and India has one. This is all a response to the ever-increasing rhetoric of China in its attempts to reclaim Taiwan. Chinese indices peaked in early 2021 and have been downward trend since then. As is usually the case with authoritarian regimes, and the Chinese regime is absolutely exactly that, the peaks of stock markets and their downward reversal always coincide with the beginning of exacerbations in foreign policy. So far so good, such regimes rest on their laurels of success, and do not show their aggressiveness. But as soon as the markets begin to fall, and the Chinese problems, in particular in the real estate sector, which was the locomotive of the Chinese economy and domestic consumption, are already known to the whole world, the regime immediately becomes aggressive and tries to solve its internal problems at the expense of its neighbors. in history, you know this very well, and will repeat itself in the future. Exactly after the peaks of the Chinese stock market, the rhetoric of the leaders of China became extremely aggressive towards the next fragment of the Chinese empire - the island of Taiwan. Let me remind you that 12 years ago George Friedman, in his book The Next 100 Years - Forecast of Events of the XXI Century, predicted that the confrontation between the United States and China would become the main event of the 21st century. This is what is now starting to happen. In response to the problems in the country's economy, the Chinese leader is going to unleash a coastal war in which he expects to emerge victorious. The only problem is that the end of the Chinese miracle has already begun, and it cannot be stopped. It will take decades, but no matter what China does, it will never be the first superpower. The increasing pressure on Taiwan, and above you can see a graph of the number of incursions into the island's airspace by day, is showing a repeating pattern. Economic problems always lead to an increase in the aggressiveness of the autocracy. From which there is no good future. Whether or not there will be a direct military clash between the West and China is irrelevant. It is important that right now the picture of the world for the next century is being formed. And in my opinion, China has no place in it. As well as states that will support China, especially against their long-term interests. Free mi simply cannot give a chance to defeat the Chinese model of government. Because she simply has no future. Just ask the USSR. By the way, where is this USSR? Whoa!